I have noticed that staleness isn't always properly detected. I think it's a recent regression. I'm only on 1.3.1, so might be fixed, but cannot see any related bugfixes in the changelogs.
From the screenshot, the materialization data of the upstream is more recent. The downstream asset actually had its dependency changed, and as far as I can tell its system tags are still referencing the old dependency. Both the new and the old upstream asset was part of a multi-asset.